After some hits and misses last year, the Farmers’ Almanac is back in batter’s box to take another swing at the long-range forecast for winter 2024-25.
Started in 1818, the Farmers’ Almanac is a competitor of The Old Farmer’s Almanac, which was founded in 1792.
The younger almanac predicts the “Atlantic Coast should experience a warmish winter, with above average temperatures.”
The average high temperature in Wilmington is 45 degrees in December, 40 degrees in January, 44 degrees in February and 52 degrees in March, according to the U.S. Climate Data website.
As far a snowfall, the Farmer’s Almanac forecast for the Northeast is “stormy with above-normal amounts of winter precipitation and near-to above-normal temperatures. Snow will be most prevalent over the interior and mountainous terrains, while sleet and rain will be more common near the coast, especially near and along the I-95 corridor,” which includes Wilmington.
The average snowfall in Wilmington is 3 inches in December, 6 inches in January, 8 inches in February and 2 inches in March, as reported by U.S. Climate Data. Overall precipitation in Wilmington, converting any snowfall to water, is 3.48 inches in December, 3.01 inches in January, 2.68 inches in February and 3.92 inches in March.
One specific prediction that the Farmer’s Almanac is “red flagging” is for the last week of January. In most of the eastern half of the country, the almanac is forecasting “a very active storm track that we expect will deliver frequent bouts of heavy precipitation, as well as strong and gusty winds.” The period from Jan 20-27 could bring “copious amounts of snow, rain, sleet, and ice depending on where you live.”
How did last year’s long-range forecast pan out?
For the winter of 2023-24, the Farmers’ Almanac said, “Folks living along the I-95 corridor from Washington to Boston, who saw a lack of wintry precipitation [in 2022-23], should experience quite the opposite, with lots of rain/sleet and snowstorms to contend with.”
In general, that didn’t hit the mark for Delaware, which had only a few days of measurable snow, mostly in the northern part of the state.
But the almanac did have three specific winter storm predictions for our area, and two of them could be considered on target or close.
The first was: “The second week of January will be stormy, snowy, and wet for both the Pacific Coast and the Eastern States.”
That was close. Wilmington received its highest snowfall of the winter on Jan. 19, about 5 inches.
More on Jan. 19 winter storm:New Castle, Kent counties report 5+ inches of snow as state issues travel advisory
The second was this prediction, “An East Coast storm affecting the Northeast and New England states will bring snowfall, cold rain and then frigid temperatures, during the second week of February.”
Wilmington received a modest amount of snow, between 2 and 3 inches, on Feb. 13 and again Feb. 17, so let’s give the almanac credit for a hit on snow, but a miss for “frigid temperatures.” The high temperature was in the 50s Feb. 8-10 and again Feb. 12. Then colder weather arrived Feb. 13-17 with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s – but not exactly “frigid.”
More on Feb. 13 storm:How much snow did Delaware get on Tuesday? Here's what the latest storm left
The final winter storm prediction for the Delaware area from the almanac was: “Another East Coast storm will bring a wintry mess to this area during the first week of March.”
In Wilmington, there was measurable rain on five of those first seven days, with the most, 1.35 inches, on March 2. However, the temperature wasn’t low enough for snow or freezing precipitation.
After a high of 46 degrees March 1, the weather turned almost spring-like with highs of 55 degrees March 2, then 66 March 3 and 65 March 4. The mercury dipped to 49 degrees March 5, but went back up to 52 March 6 and 59 degrees March 7.
So let’s give the almanac a hit for the precipitation prediction but not for “a wintry mess.”
The Famer’s Almanac editors said last year’s winter forecast was thrown a “curveball” by two factors.
The first was El Niño, “a periodic warming of the eastern tropical Pacific,” that can “alter the normal jet stream pattern and usually results in lots of rain that is pushed into the coast of California.”
The second was not knowing the full effect of the undersea Tonga volcano eruption in January 2022 “that pumped 146 million tons of water vapor 10 to 20 miles into the stratosphere,” the editors said.“This moisture might very well be stuck for several more years, contributing to a wetter world. Water vapor in the atmosphere also acts as a greenhouse gas that traps Earth’s infrared radiation, making it warmer overall.”
What is the long-range forecast based on?
The Farmers’ Almanac prediction methods were developed by the founding editor “according to correlations between celestial events and various meteorological conditions,” said editor Sandi Sampaio Duncan and editor emeritus Peter Geiger.
“Today this formula uses some of the original rules set forth back in 1818, but also accounts for fluctuations in the environment on Earth, as well as sunspots, the motion of the Moon, and other proprietary factors,” the editors said.
While weather forecasts are probably what the Farmers' Almanac is most noted for, the publication features tons of topics, trivia and tips including strategies to save money, solutions for greener gardens and lifestyles, home remedies, and calendars with the best time to fish, brew beer and plant tomatoes.
The editors said the almanac has always been focused on the environment and conservation and was the authority on hacks, sustainability and living green “long before those words became trendy.”
The almanac is now available to order on the website and will soon be on sale in stores.
Reach reporter Ben Mace at rmace@gannett.com.
